Below you will find a collection of reports on US-China relations.
Removing Hysteria from the China Debate (Aug 2021)
with Paul Krake: View from the Peak
Given China’s current regulatory clampdown, regarded as absurd by many experts, Paul attempts to reveal the rationale and necessity behind it via multiple facets and offers his views on future investment in China.
The Chinese Communist Party Turns 100 -Ten Factors Investors and Governments Continually Get Wrong (Jun 2021)
with Paul Krake: View from the Peak
To prevent further misinterpretation on China, Paul introduces ten factors about today’s China, which investors and governments should be aware of, ranging from the regime, the Internet control, ideology, Xi Jinping’s role, international relations, tech firms, monetary policy, and cryptocurrency.
My conversation with Eric hit all the right notes with the correct focus on the here and now and a dispassionate discussion of the longer-term opportunity sets for the region. Eric and I certainly do not agree on all points, especially on the outlook for the dollar, but I always come away from my conversations with Eric reassessing all of my assumptions.
China’s Space Ambitions and the Economics of Space (Mar 2021)
Shelli Brunswick, Dr. Shawna Pandya, Malak Trabelsi Loeb, Ian Christensen, Rob Ronci
Our big takeaway from dialog with US space stakeholders is that the motivations between private space sector development in China needs to be better understood within the US sector. The Chinese space ecosystem is more complex than widely recognized within US commercial space stakeholders.
Our on-going focus on Ant Group and Fintech regulation more broadly continued with Martin Chorzempa — Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, returning to continue our conversation on the true drivers and consequences of the clampdown on Ant Group.
The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement of Investment (Feb 2021)
With Philippe Le Corre - Brookings
On the eve of 2021, the EU and China agreed on a preliminary Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) that paves the way for a greater European presence in the Chinese market. The deal may mark a China-first foreign policy for the EU, even as the new American administration under US President Biden has called for multilateralism and cooperation in containing China.
Asia’s Macroeconomic Outlook 2021 Will Asia Tighten First? (Feb 2021)
with Mirza Baig: Morgan Stanley
Led by China, Asia’s handling of the pandemic and its economic recovery has been the envy of the globe. Are asset prices reflecting this, and can Asia consolidate this economic momentum? Does Asia’s economic preeminence prompt a re-rating of assets that appear well supported by a historically low funding cost?
At a much earlier stage of development in the sector, China has nonetheless been growing its data center infrastructure at a rapid pace. Our discussion was centered around the country’s data centers and the market trends surrounding it, capital flows into this sector, and the upcoming disruptions to data center infrastructure.
A multi-decade recalibration of the US-China Relationship: (May 2019)
With Jude Blanchette: CSIS
A longer-term, bigger picture focus on the recalibration of the economic relationship between the US and China over the decades ahead. There is no return to a pre Trump status quo with National Security concerns swamping any economic vested interest.
The Hong Kong Protests: What is the end game? (Aug 2019)
With Jude Blanchette: CSIS
While adherence to the Basic Law, the legal barrier between the Hong Kong of old and its integration into the mainland will continue, the reality is that Beijing’s dominance over the territory is on an unstoppable path.
RMB Bonds: Why should global investors care? (Sept 2020)
Panel: Edmund Ng, David Loevinger, Phoebe Leung, Keith Berlin
Most U.S. and European investors have tiny allocations to China, and few outside of the mainland have an exposure that reflects China's economic might. The global monetary policy response to COVID-19 has solidified the era of zero and negative interest rates, and this shines a light on the key advantage of holding Chinese fixed income and that is yield.
Chinese Fintech - the Path to Regulation (Nov 2020)
With Martin Chorzempa: Peterson
Within the span of weeks, Ant's anticipated IPO – marked as the most valuable filing in history — came crashing down. Ostensibly for a series of controversial remarks made by CEO Jack Ma that criticized China's regulators, the bigger question is whether China is trending towards regulating its financial industry and how this government oversight will impact the future of behemoth platforms
As China charts its course for the next five years in the form of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan, questions arise on China’s priorities in modernizing the country through innovation, replacing high-speed growth with high-quality growth, rebalancing its economy, and tackling issues of climate change.
Panel: Maggie Lewis, Jimmy Goodrich Anil Tewari, Mayank Mishra
A key dynamic of US policy towards China will be the semiconductor export bans, exposing China’s strategic vulnerability of heavy reliance on semiconductor imports. China doesn’t have the domestic capacity to deal with the rapid expansion of companies like Huawei, which could soon face strategic shortages. Comparisons to the 1970’s oil embargos are not far from the mark.
The Digital RMB and RMB Internationalization (Oct 2020)
Panel: Martin Chorzempa, Colin Liang, Neil Sheppard, Zennon Kapron
Digital currencies have gain momentum in the broader investment community in recent months, embraced by central bank researchers, bitcoin evangelists, and fintech investors alike. For those skeptical about the role of fiat currencies, governments' use of the printing press in response to COVID-19 has hardened their resolve that the current dollar-based model is unsustainable.
Ant Group has upended the Chinese banking system and, with WeChat, has become the model for global financial services in the decades ahead. Ant Group has the potential to be the financial backbone of a slew of industries and could well provide the framework for a cashless China and, potentially, a cashless globe.
Hong Kong’s role in China’s capital market formation - (Oct 2020)
China’s successful rebound from COVID-19 and recent activity in the Hong Kong Exchange show that demand for capital from Mainland Chinese companies remains strong, and Hong Kong remains the preferred place for these companies to raise capital.
The Future of Chinese Listings in the United States (Sept 2020)
The scandal relating to Luckin Coffee has shone a light on a glaring regulatory gap between US and Chinese companies listing on the US exchanges. It forces investors and regulators to ask if it is fair that Chinese companies have different reporting and disclosure standards from American companies when listing on US exchanges?
China's Competitive Landscape for E-Commerce (April 2021)
An Interview with Jeff Towson
Alibaba started the Chinese E-commerce revolution. Roughly 50% of global online transactions occur within China. To truly understand the Chinese competitive e-commerce landscape, we need to look into the consumer trends,...
China’s Climate Agenda and the Path to 2060 (Mar 2021)
China’s aim to become carbon neutral by 2060 represents a bold step in its energy policy at a time when the country has taken on a global leadership role in climate change negotiations. Climate is one of the few areas of global consensus but China’s carbon-neutral pledge has injected new momentum into global climate negotiations.
ByteDance is currently the world’s most valuable start-up, estimated at $400 billion. Founder Yiming Zhang seized on mobile and believed in providing users with machine learning recommendation algorithms versus traditional search. The result was a company that is constantly evolving but remains centered around apps such as Douyin, Tik Tok, and Toutiao.
Australia - China Relations: How did it get here? (Mar 2021)
In April of 2020, Australia called for an independent investigation into the origins of COVID-19. TThis commenced what could best be described as a spiral in official ties. Australian Journalists were asked to leave. China has slapped tariffs on a slew of Australian goods. Australia and China's frosty diplomatic relationship has morphed into a full-blown trade wrangle.
ESG is global and increasingly complicated in China. Not only do investors have to assess traditional metrics such as environmental sustainability, but the impact of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) non-democratic rule adds layers of complexity. A conversation with Isaac Stone Fish, a journalist and the CEO of Strategy Risk